April 6, 2014
Richard Hylton
13166 Jane Court
San Diego, CA 92129
By Email
On the day that preceded
the presentation of Vehicle Stop Data, by the SDPD, an email was circulated
with this leading sentence.
Update: After reviewing the year-long data on race released by SDPD, there are
major differences between what the data showed at 8
months versus at the end of 12 months. We don’t know why the numbers are so
different (e.g. the number of stops per month fell significantly between
January and December), but this underlines the need for a thorough, independent
analysis of the data that can be communicated to the
public. In light of this development, we have updated the ACLU’s comments
below.
The above was shocking and
surprising, since it came from a writer who knew that a significant –some would
say dramatic- fall-off in data collection rates had occurred in the fourth quarter.
Evidence of the trend, in that direction, had been noticed in 2014 and everyone[1]
was notified of the “Diminishing returns” and of other data defects (your
records should show mid-November.) since we
did in fact know of but not why the data
were so different. On giving the situation a second thought, I assigned a
benefit of doubt and assumed or concluded that word had come from the City that
it had discovered an error in data accumulation or extraction. Accordingly; I
expected that the City/SDPD would have included explanations of same in its
presentation; Silly me.
Self-inflicted Wounds
Self-inflicted Wounds - or
SIWs as they were known - comprised a highly serious wartime military offence especially
during the First World War.
Such
wounds most often took the form of rifle shots to the hand or foot, the aim
being to effectively disqualify the recipient from further front-line
service. In the British Army wounds which resulted in hospitalisation at
home were often termed 'Blighty Ones' and thus sometimes perversely sought after.See also PBS' Crimson Field Episode 3
While many - if not most -
such self-inflicted wounds went undetected, the consequences for the individual
concerned were ominous should suspicions of foul play be raised and confirmed
by medical officers.
In an attempt to determine
guilt military authorities would strive to determine the type and nature of
bullet which caused a given wound - if the bullet was 'home grown', i.e. not
fired from an enemy weapon, then the outlook was dark indeed in the absence of
clear evidence to the contrary: if found guilty of a self-inflicted wound in
the British Army the ultimate penalty was capital, i.e. death by firing squad.
The relentlessly grim, 2004
film, “A Very Long Engagement” has, as its focus, the fate of a group of 5
poilus who were sentenced to death because of SIWs. (Jodie Foster has a
significant perhaps un-credited role, as the wife of one of the unfortunate
bunch.) Cinematic license gave each an avenue of escape, not available to the
SDPD’s targets.
I have concluded that The
SDPD uses self-inflicted wounds, of its data, to “severely
limit the confidence that can be placed in” that
data so as to avoid
dealing with its consequences.
The Shape Of Things Fom Times Past.(2002
Report)
The above produced these findings in the 2002 report:
“Key Issues
The substantial decrease in stop
forms in 2001, and resulting concerns about the representativeness of the data,
severely limit
the confidence that can be placed in any
findings and conclusions. The authors have tried to be cautious in
interpreting the data.”
After having prepared us as
to what shall have been found, the authors concluded as follows on page 4:
“Unfortunately, it cannot be
determined with any confidence whether the San
Diego data for 2001 indicate any systematic patterns of bias in vehicle stops
or searches. As discussed above, there is
evidence of disproportionate impact on Black/African American and
Hispanic drivers….”
The Shape Of Things to Now Come
The similarity of shapes is
quite remarkable; the similarity in
results is not. They were expectedly dismal. The lesson was well-learned; if you
adulterate your data and/or fail to collect or enter it, analysts will be
unable to arrive at (adverse) conclusions with
confidence. So I ask what confidence
the can the new “Outside” or “Independent” analysts have in this new 2014 dataset,
marred as it is. We certainly cannot have or tolerate a finding, similar to that
of 2002, that is put forward without an unambiguous damning qualification[2].
The charade of the need for
Outside analysts and the despatch with which it was accepted, by the absent
chair, was well executed. It was worthy of an award; A Very Long Engagement got
none, and I never liked charades, and your time is up because your question has
been answered.
We should all know that San
Diego’s data is quite damning, and has been so for 15 or more years.
[1]
Including some in government i.e., City, State and Federal. I even importuned
the Vendor; CGI.
[2] Damning of the leadership of a
department that stands accused of monstrous wrongdoing against minorities and
has devoted massive man-hours and resources in data collection only to abandon
its efforts when it saw where the trend of findings was headed.
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