Water, water everywhere and I would prefer Kool-Aid

Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink.

Last week the public learned that the Racial Profiling Report, prepared by San Diego State University, was watered-down. Some of us always knew. I am a member of that privileged class. You would think that the press-source of the revelation, having access to the data that produced the below graph would have gone into more detail; would have left the periphery.

But I do look into the mouths of gift horses, and I do so often, too.

The Confidential “un-watered-down” report at page 22 states:

”According to these data, the SDPD issued 183,402 citations over this two-year period, a sum 26.1 percent greater than the 145,490 citations logged by officers via the traffic stop data card. As is shown in Table 3.4, we used stop card citation rates for each racial group to generate rough estimates of unreported traffic stops. All told, we estimate that the SDPD conducted approximately 67,357 traffic stops for which no stop card information was submitted.[1] We do note that the racial composition of the stop card citation records reflects fairly closely the racial composition of the actual citations issued, which suggests that the under-reporting was not race-determinative.”

I disagree, because the final 4 words are deceptive.

I take the expression race-determinative, as used in the full context, to mean that under-reporting was not determined by race. This table and chart show otherwise. In fact, it shows that under-reporting is co-related to race and is, in fact, inverse to the rate at which citations are issued. The higher the citation-issue rate the lower the data-entry rate for those citations. Blacks and Latino’s have the highest citation-issuance rates. The lower data-entry rates, in part, explain the paradox of the absence of Vehicle Stop Data disparity in citations between Latinos and Whites and the ridiculously low citation rates for Blacks. The substantially higher relative stop rates, for both groups, explain the rest.

Race Category	Stops	Annual Stop Totals	Judicial Count	Race %	Stop Data Count	Citation Rate	Stop Year	Disp. To EDP	Compl. Rate	E.D.P.	Avg. Comp.	% Stops	Disp. Index
Asian	12254		6450	6.46	6624	54.056	2014	0.38	102.7	16.99	101.64	8.50	0.50
Black	16140		9195	9.21	7754	48.042	2014	1.67	84.33	5.50	84.36	11.20	2.04
Hispanic	43497		30097	30.14	26631	61.225	2014	1.12	88.48	27.03	83.23	30.17	1.12
Other	10292		11946	11.96	6639	64.506	2014	3.70	55.58	3.23	56.28	7.14	2.21
White	61981	144164	42166	42.23	37972	61.264	2014	0.89	90.05	47.20	88.96	42.99	0.91
Asian	9191		5215	6.34	4997	54.368	2015	0.37	95.82	16.99	101.64	7.96	0.47
Black	12397		7643	9.29	5977	48.213	2015	1.69	78.2	5.50	84.36	10.74	1.95
Hispanic	34445		25186	30.63	19106	55.468	2015	1.13	75.86	27.03	83.23	29.84	1.10
Other	9507		10023	12.19	5584	58.736	2015	3.77	55.71	3.23	56.28	8.24	2.55
White	49881	115421	34167	41.55	27620	55.372	2015	0.88	80.84	47.20	88.96	43.22	0.92
Asian	7741		4224	6.12	4494	58.055	2016	0.36	106.39	16.99	101.64	7.51	0.44
Black	11845		6514	9.44	5899	49.802	2016	1.72	90.56	5.50	84.36	11.49	2.09
Hispanic	32442		21734	31.49	18548	57.173	2016	1.17	85.34	27.03	83.23	31.48	1.16
Other	8693		9350	13.55	5382	61.912	2016	4.20	57.56	3.23	56.28	8.44	2.61
White	42328	103049	27188	39.4	26097	61.654	2016	0.83	95.99	47.20	88.96	41.08	0.87
	362634		251098		209324
Disparity Index is the ratio of stops to the estimated driving population.

I close by agreeing that stop card citation records reflects, but not fairly closely, the racial composition of the actual citations issued. What they, stop cards and citations, have in common is that both stops and citations-issued show statistically massive race-based disparities to other groups and between the two values, stops and citations-issued, when both are arrayed side-by-side.

More water or claims that do not hold water

In my communication to RHVilla, who I believe is the source of the water-pressure, I claimed that I was too much of a gentleman to comment on the spectacular 2015 numbers, and too much of a coward to say anything about footnote 26[2] that appears on page 22 of the report (I am neither.) Doubtless it, the footnote, was meant as a bad joke, because there are approximately 84,000 Written and Verbal warning records[3] in San Diego’s Vehicle Stop Data tables. What they show can be said to be conclusive or determinative. The data, that the analysts claim they did not have, shows that Whites age given considerably more forbearance (Written Warnings) and Blacks and Latinos are disproportionately stopped, where there is no documentation of the outcome of the stop (Verbal Warnings.) I say that the only conclusions that can be drawn from the preceding are profoundly race-determinative.  But, as the un-watered down report says, the analysts claim that they did not have the data; a claim that does not hold water. That is another way that the data and the report were watered-down before they were watered-down.

Race Category	Stop Records	Verbal Warning	Verbal Warning To Stops	Verbal Warning Comparison	Written Warning	Written Warning To Stops	Written Warning Comparison
Asian	21445	5838	27.22	1.25	2286	10.66	1.07
Black	28537	9680	33.92	1.56	1665	5.84	0.59
Hispanic	77942	19121	24.53	1.13	3896	5.00	0.50
Other	19799	3773	19.06	0.88	1765	8.92	0.90
White	111862	24344	21.76	1.00	11101	9.92	1.00
Totals	259585	62756			20713

Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink. 

They would have us all become mariners.

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[1] “These calculations reflect at least one major assumption. We are forced to assume that the SDPD underreported citation stops at the same rate as non-citation stops. Because we do not have records of warnings given, there is no way to confirm this one way or another.”  

[2]  “These calculations reflect at least one major assumption. We are forced to assume that the SDPD underreported citation stops at the same rate as non-citation stops. Because we do not have records of warnings given, there is no way to confirm this one way or another.”  

[3] AB 953 Section 12525.5 further requires agencies to report the warning provided or violation cited (if any) (id., subd. (b)(4)) as well as the offense charged if an arrest was made (id., subd. (b)(4)). Accordingly, data values were included to satisfy these reporting obligations and to allow the RIPA Board to analyze, for example, whether racial disparities exist among certain categories of warnings….